文/Mark Kozak-Holland　譯/楊磊

4月14日晚間，位于泰坦尼克號(hào)以北方位的加利福尼亞號(hào)正駛向波士頓。在遭到浮動(dòng)冰架的一次幾乎致命的撞擊后，（加利福尼亞號(hào)的）史丹利-諾德船長(zhǎng)決定不再前進(jìn)，拋錨過(guò)夜。該船周圍雖滿是浮冰，但所幸并無(wú)什么危險(xiǎn)，遵船長(zhǎng)之命話務(wù)員伊文斯向泰坦尼克號(hào)上的同行---那位每天都得工作14小時(shí)、不停收發(fā)商務(wù)通信訊息的話務(wù)員---發(fā)出了浮冰警報(bào)。而泰坦尼克號(hào)則報(bào)以那句著名的回復(fù)，“住口，閉嘴！我很忙。我正與瑞斯角通信而你干擾了我?！?br>
由于安排給話務(wù)員的訊息量過(guò)于超量，這最后的外來(lái)警報(bào)并沒(méi)能被適當(dāng)?shù)厣蟼鹘o艦橋指揮部。工作章程中把相關(guān)訊息傳回艦橋指揮部的程序，在此時(shí)已被最大程度地歪曲。加利福尼亞號(hào)的話務(wù)員伊文斯也沒(méi)再繼續(xù)嘗試下去，關(guān)掉無(wú)線電后他就睡覺(jué)去了。

IT項(xiàng)目于此節(jié)上所能吸取的教訓(xùn)在于，任何外來(lái)警訊，不管來(lái)自客戶還是供應(yīng)商，都需嚴(yán)肅對(duì)待，予以徹底調(diào)查。從海量的噪音，冗余的信息中辨識(shí)和發(fā)掘出真正有意義的那部分，其重要性無(wú)出其右。在泰坦尼克號(hào)上，倘若有誰(shuí)能把與冰雪有關(guān)的所有警訊都組合在一起研究一下，不難發(fā)現(xiàn)所有這一切都指明同一個(gè)事實(shí)：在本船正前方有一個(gè)寬度竟達(dá)80英里之大的巨型冰原。令人吃驚的是，當(dāng)時(shí)確實(shí)沒(méi)有做對(duì)周圍航行環(huán)境的任何宏觀評(píng)估。

（事實(shí)上）任何有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的水手都應(yīng)注意到當(dāng)時(shí)那些預(yù)示著有巨大冰原存在的種種海況。（比如，）海面顯得很平靜，那正是由于大浮冰和積冰塊平抑了水浪；而且，海水看起來(lái)象油狀，也正是因?yàn)槠湟呀咏c(diǎn)。從船上往外的總體視距被認(rèn)為好于正常水平，正是這一點(diǎn)使得船員們高度相信各種危險(xiǎn)都能被發(fā)現(xiàn)。但是，雖說(shuō)星空燦然、水波不興，地平線處卻已出現(xiàn)薄霧，它與天相接時(shí)將使得地平線再也難以分辨。

泰坦尼克號(hào)在其守望塔樓(the crow’s nest)和艦橋指揮部?jī)商幎佳b備有目視監(jiān)視器。在守望塔樓的兩個(gè)目視監(jiān)視點(diǎn)之上，艦橋指揮部的賴特霍勒船長(zhǎng)還有一個(gè)自己專用的監(jiān)視點(diǎn)。船上配備了6名專業(yè)目視監(jiān)視員，下一班應(yīng)在0:00開(kāi)始輪值。(其實(shí)，此時(shí))往往都應(yīng)該在船首部部署特別監(jiān)視哨，并安裝一條專線電話直接通到艦橋指揮部上。問(wèn)題在于，為什么在諸多警訊跡象之下，仍然沒(méi)有安排特別的目視監(jiān)視員來(lái)當(dāng)值。這一點(diǎn)再次說(shuō)明指揮人員們的過(guò)分樂(lè)觀和自信。

此節(jié)上IT項(xiàng)目所能吸取的教訓(xùn)是，在商業(yè)周期中，隨情況之變會(huì)出現(xiàn)所謂關(guān)鍵時(shí)段，比如在月末的種種操作，往往需要特別的安排和處理，此時(shí)任何不尋常的狀況都不得掉以輕心。

況且，泰坦尼克號(hào)的觀察哨發(fā)現(xiàn)雙筒望遠(yuǎn)鏡找不著了，這太不尋常了。按慣例，在守望塔樓應(yīng)至少常備一付。其實(shí)，觀察哨兵們已經(jīng)不止一次地匯報(bào)了這一異常：哨兵們自從離開(kāi)南安普敦就一路抱怨，這些本來(lái)列入在工作合同中將幫助他們更好完成其義務(wù)的工具，卻不見(jiàn)蹤影。哨兵們得到的解釋是，這些雙筒望遠(yuǎn)鏡被分配給指揮官們用了，也或是有人偷了、但鑒于船大人多，沒(méi)法追查回來(lái)。

在此IT項(xiàng)目應(yīng)吸取的教訓(xùn)是，對(duì)那些處于關(guān)鍵位置的某些員工，如一線運(yùn)行操作人員，應(yīng)盡可能把最好的工作設(shè)備配備給他們，而不是配給組織結(jié)構(gòu)和階層中的任何其他人。

在估計(jì)與海上浮冰相距多遠(yuǎn)時(shí)，水溫是非常精確的指標(biāo)。通常，當(dāng)船進(jìn)入冰原時(shí)，應(yīng)從船體的一側(cè)用帆布桶取海水，然后放入溫度計(jì)進(jìn)行測(cè)量。按照此法每?jī)尚r(shí)測(cè)一次，一系列的測(cè)試之后將能很精確地揭示出大冰川與船體的距離。然而，一個(gè)旅客（事后指出）當(dāng)時(shí)曾看到一個(gè)船員往測(cè)量桶里灌的是船上自來(lái)水管里的水，原因是桶上的提繩不夠長(zhǎng)，放不到海里。

而今IT項(xiàng)目應(yīng)吸取的教訓(xùn)是，當(dāng)反饋機(jī)制不斷返回著相互矛盾、相互不能關(guān)聯(lián)的數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)，必須詳查反饋機(jī)制本身。然而現(xiàn)實(shí)中，泰坦尼克號(hào)反饋機(jī)制不僅本身就不完善，而且即便是通過(guò)該機(jī)制匯報(bào)上來(lái)的問(wèn)題，其相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)也是偽造來(lái)敷衍了事的。這同時(shí)又強(qiáng)調(diào)了在項(xiàng)目正式實(shí)施前，檢查測(cè)試所有反饋機(jī)制和操作步驟的重要性。

盡管有前述的種種警訊，也沒(méi)人采取任何措施減慢航速。從事后的角度看，船長(zhǎng)和指揮官們應(yīng)針對(duì)報(bào)上來(lái)的種種異常情況做更多的澄清工作，更直接深入地調(diào)查，集思廣智。然而，沒(méi)人料想得到在這一航程上如此快地就將直面冰山，因?yàn)楸酵ǔ２⒉粫?huì)飄游到象泰坦尼克號(hào)的航線那么南的海域。指揮員們當(dāng)時(shí)一定認(rèn)為在那樣“極好”的能見(jiàn)度下一切都能被及時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)。

如今許多IT項(xiàng)目在項(xiàng)目執(zhí)行上打折扣，是源于不夠嚴(yán)肅認(rèn)真、或屈從商務(wù)壓力，而過(guò)快地讓初步方案最終產(chǎn)品化。當(dāng)初泰坦尼克號(hào)的船主們就被讓船盡快投入商業(yè)營(yíng)業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力所驅(qū)使。

結(jié)果，泰坦尼克號(hào)的（項(xiàng)目）測(cè)試，換變成了（直接）滿載乘客橫跨大西洋的處女航?？紤]到已經(jīng)投入和在泰坦尼克號(hào)建造中積壓的大量資本，這一點(diǎn)是可以理解的，然而是否是可以接受的呢？商業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)對(duì)奧林匹亞號(hào)是同樣存在的，而白星號(hào)的總體目標(biāo)就是每周在大西洋上對(duì)開(kāi)兩班豪華航線。況且，奧林匹亞號(hào)已兩次意外停運(yùn)了近8個(gè)星期，所以Ismay急于讓泰坦尼克號(hào)盡快投入正式營(yíng)運(yùn)。而代價(jià)呢？Ismay為泰坦尼克號(hào)寫下了一個(gè)新的“服務(wù)水準(zhǔn)目標(biāo)”（Service Level Objectives），下一部分將證明它是對(duì)泰坦尼克號(hào)是命運(yùn)攸關(guān)的東西。

下一部分將著眼于IT項(xiàng)目的運(yùn)行階段。

原文：

On the night of April 14, the ship California was north of Titanic, bound for Boston. After a near-fatal collision with an ice shelf, Captain Stanley Lord decided against proceeding forward and pulled up for the night. Surrounded by pack ice but in no danger, radio operator Evans, under orders from the captain, sent an ice warning to Titanic’s radio operators, who had been working a 14-hour day sending/receiving commercial traffic. Titanic responded with the infamous, “Shut up, shut up, I am busy. I am working Cape Race and you are jamming me.”

This last warning was not passed back to the bridge because of the message overload. The procedure for passing messages back to the bridge was confusing at best. Evans did not try again, turned off his wireless and went to bed.

The lesson from this for IT projects today is that any external warnings, from customer or supplier, need to be taken seriously, and thoroughly investigated. Finding the meaningful information in a sea of “noise,” or redundant information, is invaluable. With Titanic, if someone had pieced together all the ice-warning information, it would have indicated a giant ice field, around 80 miles wide, directly ahead. Effectively, there was no macro view of the environment.

Any experienced mariner would recognize sea conditions indicative of ice fields. The sea is calmer, as the ice floes and pack ice dampen water movement. The seawater also takes on an oily appearance as it approaches freezing point. The overall visible distance that objects could be seen from the ship was thought to be beyond the norm. This gave the crew a high level of confidence, in being able to spot all hazards. However, although stars brightly illuminated the sky, and the sea was incredibly calm, there was a haze on the horizon created by the cold weather. This made it difficult to outline the horizon as it merged with the sky.

Titanic had some built-in visual monitoring through the crow’s nest and the bridge. Beyond the two lookouts in the crow’s nest, officer Lightholler maintained a lookout himself from the bridge. Titanic carried six specialist lookouts, and the next shift change was due to start at 00:00. A question remains why no extra lookouts were on duty, considering all the warning signs. It was typical to post extra lookouts on the bow of the ship, to which a telephone link ran from the bridge. This is another example of the overconfidence of the officers.

The lesson for today’s IT projects is that there are critical periods in the business cycle were conditions change, like month end processing, and this requires extra diligence. Unusually quite conditions should not be taken lightly.

In addition, the lookouts were missing binoculars, which was very unusual. It was customary to always have at least one pair in the crow’s nest. The lookouts had repeatedly reported this, since leaving Southampton, resentful at not having these since they were the tools of the trade required to make them effective. Explanations include they were assigned to officers on the bridge, or that someone stowed them away and was unable to find them with the size of the ship.

The lesson for today’s IT projects is that certain staff in critical positions, like operations, should have the best equipment available, in preference to others in the hierarchy.

The temperature of water is a very accurate guide to the proximity of ice in the water. Normally, when entering ice fields, tests were taken by drawing seawater from over the side of the ship with a canvas bucket, and then placing a thermometer in the bucket. Repeated every two hours, these tests were an accurate indicator of the proximity of large ice floes. However, one of the passengers noticed a sailor filling the bucket with tap water because the rope was not long enough to reach the sea.

The lesson for today’s IT projects is to investigate feedback mechanisms that are reporting contrary data in isolation to other data collected. In Titanic’s story, the mechanism was faulty but rather than report the problem the data was falsified to cover it up. It also emphasizes the importance of testing all feedback mechanisms and operational procedures before implementation.

No attempt was made to slow the ship down, despite all the aforementioned warnings. In hindsight, the captain and officers should have done more to clarify the scope of anomalies brought to their attention, investigate them more closely, and piece together all the intelligence. However, no one expected icebergs to be directly in the path of the ship so soon in the voyage, as icebergs did not usually drift down as far south as Titanic’s course. The officers must have perceived that anything would be seen well in time with such “excellent” visibility.

Conclusions
Today, many IT projects severely compromise implementation by not taking it seriously enough and bowing to business pressures to get the solution into production quickly. Titanic’s owners were very much driven by the pressing economic need to move Titanic into service.

In reality, Titanic’s testing consisted of the maiden voyage across the Atlantic fully loaded with passengers. This is understandable, considering the huge amounts of capital that had been invested and sat tied up during construction. But was it acceptable? The business opportunity was there for another ship (Olympic) and White Star’s overall objective was to have two luxury liners crossing paths on the Atlantic on a scheduled weekly basis. In addition, Olympic had been twice unexpectedly out of service for about eight weeks, so Ismay was anxious to see Titanic move into service as quickly as possible. But at what cost? Ismay wrote out a new SLO for Titanic that proved to be crucial in the next part of the story.

The next installment will look at the operation stage of the IT project.

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